Many have said California's gas prices have screamed higher as a result of the state's extended use of more-expensive summer blend gasoline.
EPA requirements prevent gas stations from selling a cheaper winter blend until November.
But there are signs that switching early to winter blend, as Gov. Jerry Brown has requested, will have little to no impact.
Citi energy analyst Tim Evans told us via e-mail that the switch won't affect the fundamental problem: refinery outages.
Given the larger issues involved, its really not possible to assign a number on the early switch to winter grade gasoline, but I think the impact will be small. The switch does give refiners some increased flexibility in terms of managing their inventories -- it's one less thing to worry about -- but it won't mean more barrels of crude oil converted into fuel, which is the primary issue.
Chevron said today that they won't be able to restart the crude unit at the 245,000 bpd Richmond refinery until December and so I don't see this problem going away so quickly.
AAA's Michael Green told us something similar, saying there was no way to know when relief from the switch would kick in.
It seems more likely that a seasonal demand drop will have a bigger impact.
When gas prices hit an all-time high in 2008, analysts cautioned the effect of switching would be minimal.
"If there is any price effect, it will be dwarfed or masked by the changes caused by the drop in crude oil prices and a drop in gasoline demand," EIA spokesman Jonathan Cogan told the AP at the time.
Refinery outages and regulations are just two of the many factors that affect gas prices.
OPEC Production
OPEC produces 40 percent of the world's oil. If there are any headlines coming out any of these 12 countries, the price of oil will be affected.
Source: API
Non-OPEC production
Shut-ins of off-shore platforms in the Gulf, which usually occur in the wake of hurricanes, can cause prices to spike.
Source: API
Emerging Market Demand
Emerging market oil demand growth, driven by China, will soak up global supply growth, keeping the supply-demand balance tight and oil prices elevated over the next five years. A hard landing by China poses the biggest downside risk to EM oil demand growth.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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