Thursday, June 2, 2011

Three Great Charts From Goldman On The Sovereign Debt Threat To Europe's Massive Banking Sector


Europe's economy is far more reliant on its banking sector than the U.S., and any damage from a European default would have a significant impact, according to Goldman Sachs.

Bank analyst research shows that the continent's capital markets are more reliant on bank assets than the U.S.. This means that if a crisis erupts in the continent's banking sector, as a result of a default, and banks have to take losses, the region's economy will slow.

Note the outsize proportion of bank assets as a percent of GDP, compared to the U.S.

Chart

Further, if financial shares tumble as a result of banking sector stress, it's going to hit European markets harder than a similar scenario would in the U.S.

Chart

And Goldman notes banks' exposures to the sovereign debt that could trigger this crisis. Note, Greece is not a major problem, but Ireland certainly poses a threat.

Chart

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