Sunday, July 29, 2012

JIM O'NEILL: Embrace Eurobonds Or End The Euro Now

jim o'neill gesturing

Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, eloquently lays out what may be the only solution to save the euro in a new op-ed on The Telegraph's website.

Currently, the euro crisis is about Spain and Italy, whose sky-high government borrowing costs make managing their struggling economies seem hopeless.

"Spain and Italy desperately require lower bond yields," he wrote.

For now, these countries are stuck in the eurozone where forces like Germany have been unwilling to show monetary policy flexibility.

"Without a solution to lower interest rates to help Spain to get some benefit from its policy adjustments, what is the eurozone offering Spain?" O'Neill asks rhetorically.

O'Neill thinks that lower interest rates is the best path, because debt reduction through austerity risks making things worse:

"If the country simply persists in trying to reduce its debt by tightening government spending and raising taxes even more, all it will guarantee is even weaker growth and higher unemployment – which might in turn result in greater Spanish debt, not less"

Earlier this week, credit agency Moody's put Germany and other AAA-rated euro countries on "negative outlook,' reminding them that they need Spain and Italy to be in better shape.

O'Neill firmly believes that the best way to lower Spain and Italy's borrowing rates would be the introduction of eurobonds – a way for all the countries to share debt burdens.  Otherwise, they should just pull the plug on the euro.

That being said, if Germany really does not want to consider the ultimate logical consequence of eurobonds, then perhaps – as messy as it would be – they should stop the project now.

By introducing eurobonds, Spain and Italy should be able to to lower their borrowing costs to more manageable levels.

As we demonstrate in the July Insights, if you could combine forward commitment to eurobonds, together with the belief that Italy and Spain can increase their real GDP (and maintain primary surpluses) it is quite believable that euro-wide bond yields would settle somewhere between 4pc and 5pc. This would be perfectly consistent with long-term trend growth of 2pc with inflation as desired by the ECB at 2pc.

Currently, Italy's 10-year rate is at 5.9pc and Spain's is at 6.7pc.  So these estimate rates offered by eurobonds would be very welcome.

Eurobonds would also be competitive to the bonds offered by other highly-rated countries.  O'Neill points to an interesting debt stat that might surprise some:

But what is so special about the ECB that doesn’t apply to other central banks in challenged Western economies? The euro area GDP weighted deficit and debt levels are lower than the UK, the US and Japan.

Unfortunately, euro area leaders are running out of time to think about all of this.  O'Neill reminds us that the euro economy is sinking further, the US economy is getting worse, and the emerging markets are decelerating.

O'Neill recently circulated to the top people at Goldman Sachs 7 charts snapshotting the global economy.

Click Here To See O'Neill's 7 Charts >

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JIM O'NEILL: Embrace Eurobonds Or End The Euro Now

jim o'neill gesturing

Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, eloquently lays out what may be the only solution to save the euro in a new op-ed on The Telegraph's website.

Currently, the euro crisis is about Spain and Italy, whose sky-high government borrowing costs make managing their struggling economies seem hopeless.

"Spain and Italy desperately require lower bond yields," he wrote.

For now, these countries are stuck in the eurozone where forces like Germany have been unwilling to show monetary policy flexibility.

"Without a solution to lower interest rates to help Spain to get some benefit from its policy adjustments, what is the eurozone offering Spain?" O'Neill asks rhetorically.

O'Neill thinks that lower interest rates is the best path, because debt reduction through austerity risks making things worse:

"If the country simply persists in trying to reduce its debt by tightening government spending and raising taxes even more, all it will guarantee is even weaker growth and higher unemployment – which might in turn result in greater Spanish debt, not less"

Earlier this week, credit agency Moody's put Germany and other AAA-rated euro countries on "negative outlook,' reminding them that they need Spain and Italy to be in better shape.

O'Neill firmly believes that the best way to lower Spain and Italy's borrowing rates would be the introduction of eurobonds – a way for all the countries to share debt burdens.  Otherwise, they should just pull the plug on the euro.

That being said, if Germany really does not want to consider the ultimate logical consequence of eurobonds, then perhaps – as messy as it would be – they should stop the project now.

By introducing eurobonds, Spain and Italy should be able to to lower their borrowing costs to more manageable levels.

As we demonstrate in the July Insights, if you could combine forward commitment to eurobonds, together with the belief that Italy and Spain can increase their real GDP (and maintain primary surpluses) it is quite believable that euro-wide bond yields would settle somewhere between 4pc and 5pc. This would be perfectly consistent with long-term trend growth of 2pc with inflation as desired by the ECB at 2pc.

Currently, Italy's 10-year rate is at 5.9pc and Spain's is at 6.7pc.  So these estimate rates offered by eurobonds would be very welcome.

Eurobonds would also be competitive to the bonds offered by other highly-rated countries.  O'Neill points to an interesting debt stat that might surprise some:

But what is so special about the ECB that doesn’t apply to other central banks in challenged Western economies? The euro area GDP weighted deficit and debt levels are lower than the UK, the US and Japan.

Unfortunately, euro area leaders are running out of time to think about all of this.  O'Neill reminds us that the euro economy is sinking further, the US economy is getting worse, and the emerging markets are decelerating.

O'Neill recently circulated to the top people at Goldman Sachs 7 charts snapshotting the global economy.

Click Here To See O'Neill's 7 Charts >

Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.

Join the conversation about this story »


Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/N3JV1T39NVw/jim-oneill-euro-spain-italy-germany-eurobonds-2012-7

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Saturday, July 28, 2012

Investigators Are Closing In On Two Other Banks Involved In LIBOR Rigging

Bradley Birkenfeld UBS whistleblower

(Reuters) - New details from court documents and sources close to the Libor scandal investigation suggest that groups of traders working at three major European banks were heavily involved in rigging global benchmark interest rates.

Some of those traders, including one who used to work at Barclays Plc in New York, still have senior positions on Wall Street trading desks.

Until now, most of the attention has involved traders at Barclays, which last month reached a $453 million settlement with U.S. and UK authorities for its role in the manipulation of rates. Now, it is becoming clear that traders from at least two other banks - UK-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Switzerland's UBS AG - played a central role.

Between them, the three banks employed more than a dozen traders who sought to influence rates in either dollar, euro or yen rates. Some of the traders who are being probed have worked for several banks under scrutiny, raising the possibility that the rate fixing became more ingrained as traders changed jobs.

The documents reviewed by Reuters in analyzing the traders' involvement included court filings by Canadian regulators who have been investigating potential antitrust issues; settlement documents with Barclays filed by the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington and by the Financial Services Authority in the U.K.; and a private employment lawsuit filed by a former RBS trader in Singapore's High Court.

The scandal, which began to come to light in 2008, has become a time bomb for regulators and a big focus for politicians on both sides of the Atlantic. At issue is the manipulation between at least 2005 and 2009 of rates that are used to determine the cost of trillions of dollars of borrowings, including everything from home loans to credit card rates.

One former Barclays employee under scrutiny, Reuters has learned, is Jay V. Merchant, according to people familiar with the situation. Merchant, who oversaw the U.S. dollar swaps trading desk at Barclays in New York, worked for the bank from March 2006 to October 2009, according to employment records maintained by the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

Merchant currently holds a similar position at UBS, where he works out of the Swiss bank's offices in Stamford, Connecticut, according to FINRA. He did not return requests for comment.

People familiar with the investigation said authorities are looking at whether some individuals on Merchant's trading desk tried to influence the rate on Libor by communicating with other traders in London to get a higher return on certain swaps the desk was trading. His specific role is unclear.

The Department of Justice declined to comment.

Merchant's attorney, John Kenney of Hoguet Newman Regal & Kenney, did not respond to requests seeking comment.

A UBS spokeswoman said that the bank has "no reason to believe Mr. Merchant has engaged in any improper conduct at UBS." The spokeswoman, who noted that Merchant is on a two-week vacation, declined to comment on the broader investigation.

Barclays declined to comment. In a statement, an RBS spokeswoman said the bank is cooperating with the investigation.

SPREAD FROM BARCLAYS

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that federal prosecutors in Washington have begun reaching out to lawyers for some of the individuals under scrutiny as they get closer to bringing possible criminal charges.

The dollar and euro rate-rigging appears to have begun in earnest in early 2005 in the dollar market, according to the documents reviewed by Reuters. By August of that year, Barclays traders were reaching out to traders at other big global banks to manipulate their rates to make them favorable to Barclays' trading positions.

Soon, the trading had crossed to the euro rate markets, according to the settlement documents filed in the Barclays investigation. And by 2007, traders at RBS and UBS were seeking to influence the yen rate market, according to documents filed in 2011 in Singapore's High Court and in Canada's Ontario Superior Court.

Traders at Barclays are believed to have participated in manipulating the rate for the dollar and the rate for the euro known as Euribor, according to documents filed in the Barclays settlement last month.

RBS and UBS traders are a focus of the global investigation because of their alleged involvement in seeking to influence yen-denominated rates.

Two RBS traders in London, Brent Davies and Will Hall, are alleged to have agreed to help a trader at UBS, Thomas Hayes, to manipulate yen Libor, according to court documents filed by the Canadian Competition Bureau.

UBS is cooperating with Canadian and U.S. authorities, according to people familiar with the situation.

Hayes worked at UBS from 2006 to 2009. He later moved to Citigroup where he remained until 2010, after which he left the bank. Hayes, Davies and Hall could not be reached for comment.

The documents reveal that Hayes also contacted traders at other banks in London to get them to manipulate yen rates. They include Peter O'Leary at HSBC Holdings Plc, Guillaume Adolph at Deutsche, and Paul Glands at JPMorgan. A second UBS employee sought to get a Citigroup trader, who formerly had worked at UBS, to influence rates.

None of these traders could be reached for comment.

CONDONED

In addition, a former trader at RBS, Tan Chi Min, said in a wrongful termination lawsuit filed in the Singapore High Court in 2011 that he was forced out for "improperly seeking to influence" the setting of Libor. Tan, who ran a trading desk at RBS, said in the suit that improper rate-rigging was known by some at the bank and condoned.

Tan denied trying to manipulate Libor, and alleged in the 2011 court filing, and one in March this year, that about a half dozen other RBS traders openly tried to request specific rates.

Tan's attorney, N. Sreenivasan, declined to comment because the court case is ongoing.

Beyond traders at the three European banks, authorities are still probing the role of others.

For example, traders at JPMorgan Chase & Co also interacted with some of the traders under scrutiny who worked for Barclays and RBS, according to a person familiar with the situation and court documents filed in Singapore.

Similarly, Deutsche Bank AG also had several employees whose trading is under scrutiny by authorities, according to people familiar with the situation and court documents filed in Canada.

JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

(Reporting by Carrick Mollenkamp and Emily Flitter in New York; Additional reporting by Matthew Goldstein and Jennifer Ablan in New York, Rachel Armstrong in Singapore, Anjuli Davies in London and Katharina Bart in Zurich; Editing by Martin Howell and Nick Macfie)

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Our Devs Weigh In: We Also Want To Watch The Olympics Instead Of Work

nbc-logo1Editor's Note: Rob Saurini is a hard working developer at TechCrunch, except for today. Today, he just wants to watch the Olympics, like a true patriot. So I've been sitting here for the past couple of hours searching for a way to watch the Olympics Opening Ceremonies when I should probably be doing actual work.

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Even Luxury Giants Can't Get Away From Couponing (JCP, COH)

Coach Shopping Retail Handbags Bags

J.C. Penney is not the only retailer suffering from a lack of coupons.

Luxury handbag giant Coach plans to reinstate coupons at its Factory outlets, after same-store sales decelerated, J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Tunick says.

"It appears management has moved back to coupons and emails in late June after several months of testing the new strategy in the prior quarter," Tunick says.

The company eliminated coupons at its more than 162 North American factory stores at the start of 2012 as it introduced Every Day Low Pricing in an attempt to boost margins.

"Our new 'no math' pricing structure provides us with greater marketing flexibility, enabling us to balance productivity gains and margin improvement," Coach's Chief Executive Lew Frankfort said at the time.

But customer acceptance of the lower pricing strategy did not seem to gain momentum, forcing Coach to change its stance. 

Tunick says management's decision to reverse course so rapidly could end up boosting results in the following quarter.

"While we believe that there was a slowdown at the factory outlets this quarter that stemmed from the lack of couponing ... we’d point out that the re-implementation of coupons could potentially act as a comp driver going forward," Tunick says.

Ahead of the company's fourth quarter earnings next week, analysts expect Coach to report earnings per share of $0.85 on sales of $1.2 billion, representing 25 percent earnings growth.

SEE ALSO: One bellwether already told us what to expect for the rest of 2012 >

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What Is a 403b Retirement Plan ? Contributions, Withdrawals & Taxes

Many people know that you should contribute to a�401k account to secure an enjoyable, comfortable retirement. But if you work for a nonprofit, a state agency, or a university, your employer might offer you a 403b instead. A 403b is very similar to a 401k: Both retirement accounts are tax-deferred, which means that you don’t [...]

What Is a 403b Retirement Plan – Contributions, Withdrawals & Taxes is a post from the Money Crashers personal finance blog.


Source: http://www.moneycrashers.com/403b-retirement-plan-rules/

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Friday, July 27, 2012

4 Reasons To Be Optimistic In This Worrisome World

I know it’s all the rage to talk about all the economic negatives these days, but what if things turn out “better than expected”?   Something to ponder via Print Turner:

“Amidst all the worries, what are some potentially positive surprises?

  • Energy prices continue to moderate, putting more spending money in consumer pockets, reducing corporate operating costs and boosting economic growth.
  • U.S. economic data such as auto sales, business loans and employment continue modest improvement. New home construction and sales, spurred on by record low interest rates, meaningfully contribute to growth.
  • Emerging market countries (China, India, Latin America, etc.) take stronger actions to stimulate economic growth in their own countries thereby spearheading renewed global growth.
  • Stabilized and improving home values add to the positive “wealth effect” for U.S. households for the first time in five years. This is the most unexpected and welcomed economic surprise.”

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